Voters wait in line to cast their ballot at a polling station during the country’s general election in Narathiwat, southern Thailand, May 14, 2023.
Madari Tohlala/AFP via Getty Images
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Voters wait in line to cast their ballot at a polling station during the country’s general election in Narathiwat, southern Thailand, May 14, 2023.
Madari Tohlala/AFP via Getty Images
The unofficial results of what many see as a referendum on nine years of military-backed rule that brought Thailand’s current prime minister and coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha to power show that the opposition is moving towards victory.
With roughly 84% of the vote counted, the Pheu Thai Party, the latest iteration of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s populist political machine, is projected to win 113 seats, while the progressive Moving Forward Party won 115 seats, driven by voters like 38- a summer nurse, Tidawan, who voted in the northeastern city of Khon Kaen.
“I want something new, new strength and a new path,” said Tidavan, who did not want to give her last name. “Nothing will change in the army.”
The idea was backed by Vachiraporn Tavimanekot, 25, who voted to move forward in the capital Bangkok.
“I just wanted to see something new, something better,” she said at a polling station near the city center. “Now we need something new to take us into the future. To bring us forward.”
Forward Movement party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrath gives a press conference at the party’s headquarters in Bangkok May 14 after the polls close in Thailand’s general election.
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Forward Movement party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrath gives a press conference at the party’s headquarters in Bangkok May 14 after the polls close in Thailand’s general election.
Jack Taylor/AFP via Getty Images
“Move Forward” was based on the “three D” platform. His charismatic Harvard-educated prime ministerial candidate told NPR: “Demilitarization, demonopolization and decentralization is how you democratize Thailand. This is the endgame,” said Pita Limjaroenrath. “Take the military out of politics so we don’t have military coups every seven years on average.”
The Forward Movement also advocated marriage equality and an end to conscription, two issues that resonate with young voters, as well as a more controversial call for amendments to controversial lèse-majesté laws to ban any criticism of the Thai monarchy.
This law established prison terms for convicts from 3 to 15 years. Over the past few years, several hundred people have been indicted under the law, many following the protests that followed the dissolution of Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, following its surprisingly strong 2019 third-place finish as first challenger.
An estimated 52 million Thais were eligible to vote in this election, and turnout was considered high as military-affiliated parties struggled to convince voters they should stay in power after almost a decade of slow economic growth and a crackdown on pro-democracy activists in the past few years.
According to initial projections, the Prime Minister’s Party was expected to take sixth place.
Strong positions of the opposition do not guarantee a path to power
While no major issues were reported during today’s vote, Human Rights Watch called the election “fundamentally flawed” and taking place under a 2017 constitution written by a commission appointed by the military after the 2014 coup.
This means that a military-backed royalist government can still return to power if it retains the backing of a 250-member military-appointed Senate. The Prime Minister is elected by a simple majority vote by the House and Senate, meaning that the royalist military establishment could return to power with just 126 seats in the House.
The establishment has other tools at its disposal. In the past two decades, he has staged two coups, and Thailand’s courts have ousted three opposition prime ministers and disbanded several opposition parties. Political analyst Titinan Pongsudirak of Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University says the election is in danger of dissolution.
“Something is likely to happen, because how could the conservative royalist establishment put up with the kind of agenda that Move Forward proposes and trades and calls for change and reform of the military and the monarchy?” says the Titanan. “You have to imagine a lot of Thais, powerful Thais, elites, they have a lot of shares in the system that have been created over the past seven decades… they have bought into the system. And moving forward is a direct challenge. ”
Patongtarn Shinawatra and Sretta Tawisin, Pheu Thai party’s prime ministerial candidates, at the party’s headquarters at the end of election day May 14 in Bangkok, Thailand.
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Patongtarn Shinawatra and Sretta Tawisin, Pheu Thai party’s prime ministerial candidates, at the party’s headquarters at the end of election day May 14 in Bangkok, Thailand.
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Like Pheu Thai, a thorn in the side of a generation in the military, haunted by the specter of the establishment’s nemesis, Thaksin Shinawatra. His daughter, Patongtarn Shinawatra, is one of the party’s candidates for the post of prime minister.
Her father and aunt remain in exile after being overthrown by the military on corruption charges. Though Thaksin recently hinted that he would like to return this summer to see his new grandson, whom Patongtarn gave birth to earlier this month.
Official results are expected in a few weeks at the earliest, with a new parliament and a new prime minister appointed by July.